An AI team wants to run a statistically valid A/B test comparing two system prompts for a customer-facing Q&A bot. A junior engineer proposes running Prompt A for the first two weeks of the month and Prompt B for the last two weeks. What is the MOST significant flaw in this experimental design?
- A. Sequential prompt testing violates most LLM providers' terms of service, which require that prompt variants be evaluated concurrently through their official experimentation APIs rather than rotated in production.
- B. Two weeks is always too short a period to collect enough samples for statistical significance, so each prompt must run for at least a full month before comparing results.
- C. The design confounds prompt version with time, meaning any observed difference could be caused by temporal factors (e.g., different user behavior on weekdays vs. month-end) rather than the prompt itself.✓ Correct
- D. A/B testing requires both prompts to run on an identical model version, which cannot be guaranteed across two calendar periods because providers silently update hosted model snapshots between the periods without any versioning notice to API customers.
Explanation
Confounding prompt version with time is correct. Running each variant in its own time window causes temporal confounding: differences in traffic patterns, user intent, or outside events between the two periods cannot be told apart from the prompt's effect. A proper A/B test randomly assigns requests to the variants at the same time. The claim that two weeks is always too short is wrong in absolute terms: two weeks may be enough depending on traffic volume, because significance depends on sample size, not calendar duration alone. The claim that the model version cannot be guaranteed across periods is a false constraint: model version is a separate variable that can be controlled (for example, by pinning it) regardless of the time period. The claim that sequential testing violates provider terms of service is false: no major LLM provider prohibits A/B testing of prompts.